Second Half of 2015 Molybdenum Market Prospect

Domestic market: second half of 2015, China's domestic economic growth is expected to rebound. In the demand side, "one belt and one road" development strategy, nation nuclear power re-construction and other development strategy will stimulate demand for the steel industry, thus further stimulating demand for molybdenum. But due to construction project involves a longer period, the second half of this year is expected to stimulate demand is limited. In the supply side, as the price fell to the majority of mine cost line, the second half of the domestic molybdenum concentrate, molybdenum oxide supply will be eased and the International associated molybdenum mine capacity will not be fully released. Taking all these various factors, the second half of 2015 domestic molybdenum prices is expected to bottom shock or slightly better than the first half.

International market: the second half of 2015, the global economy still uncertain, the downstream steel industry will slightly changed to good side. In the supply side, North America monomer molybdenum and South America associated molybdenum production will not release too much, so market supply will not be greatly affected. Since the third quarter is the traditional summer break, expect the market will remain weak, after the summer break, with the end of the industry off-season, is expected to international molybdenum prices will remain stable or rise slightly possible.

The First Half of 2015 Molybdenum’s Market

The first half of 2015, China's domestic molybdenum market showed a continued downward trend. In the first quarter by the impact of the Chinese New Year holidays, molybdenum concentrate had limited in stock, although the lack of demand, but the price decline is not very large. In the second quarter, although there are a series of initiatives to promote the molybdenum market, but as demand continued to decline, supply continued to increase, while imports of raw materials on the domestic raw materials market also caused a greater impact, so product prices fell to a lower price. According molybdenum and comelan website average price showed the first half of 2015 the average price of molybdenum concentrate was RMB 1,122.09 yuan/ton, down 20.14%. The lowest price is 990 yuan/ton and the highest price is RMB 1,260 yuan/ton. The first half of 2015 the ferro molybdenum (60% Mo) average price is 78,200 yuan/ton, down 19.38%. The lowest price of ferro molybdenum is 70,000 yuan/ton and the highest price of it is 87,000 yuan/ton. The first half of 2015, affected by the lack of demand, international molybdenum prices also showed a continued downward trend. The first quarter of 2015, the global steel industry was dismal performance and molybdenum market demand continues to not busy. Besides, traders purchase is fatigue, so the international price of molybdenum oxide shock decline. Oil prices continued to decline in the second quarter, the downstream demand continues to slump, coupled with China's export tariffs canceled which cause international markets panic and molybdenum price down under such pressure. According to the International MW prices in the first half 2015 MW average molybdenum oxide price is $ 7.98/pound, down 32.37%, the lowest price was $6.20/pound and the highest price is $ 9.45 / pound.

Global and China Molybdenum Industry Report 2012-2015,II

China is a large producer and consumer of molybdenum in the world, and the global increment in the molybdenum production and consumption  in the past two years mainly came from China.

In 2012, China produced 92 kilotons of molybdenum (equivalent to metal content), accounting for 40.2% of the global molybdenum output, and consumed 85 kilotons, accounting for 37.8% of the global molybdenum consumption.
Due to the national protection on strategic resources, molybdenum resources will be concentrated in large enterprises, and the supply will be effectively controlled.Global molybdenum producers are mainly concentrated in countries with rich molybdenum reserves such as China, the United States and Chile.

Global top 10 molybdenum producers account for 2/3 of the global output. Mineral resources are controlled by major molybdenum companies, and the access to large-quantity and high-quality molybdenum ore resources has become the biggest obstacle to entering the industry.